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Napa Valley Wealth Management - St. Helena, CA

Economic, Market, & Allocation Outlook 1Q 2019


With December's theatrical sell-off in both the stock and bond markets, some are saying it's the sign of a bear market turn. Indeed, many of you are asking if this mature bull run is near its end. 

After in-depth analysis of historical and current data at our latest Investment Policy Committee meeting, we believe both the bond and stock markets will deliver reasonable returns this year, and bonds might even hand us above-average results.

We invite you to download our latest Economic, Market, & Allocation publication by filling out the form below. This six-page report unpacks our detailed analysis of key market and economic indicators and explains the reasoning behind our tactical portfolio changes. 

In This IssueFollowing are our outlooks for equities, bonds, and each major asset class. Tactical asset allocation is a cornerstone to our investment strategy, and these forecasts are a key analytical tool we use to identify market opportunities, minimize your exposure to risk, and reduce your portfolio volatility.

  • Market Forecast for 2019: Even with a December sell-off, continued political headlines, unresolved tariffs, and mature economic and market cycles, quantitative analysis suggests both equity and fixed income will perform in line with historical averages this year. Read our analysis on pages 2-3.
  • A Slowing Economy? Worldwide, many economies are decelerating. Is ours? Read our thoughts on page 4.

These forward-looking forecasts are an integral part of our tactical investment process. Instead of using a buy-and-hold strategy, we understand that risk changes over time, and we make ongoing, tactical changes to our portfolios to consistently move away from risk and toward opportunities. These changes are based in large part on the forecasts enclosedWe continually monitor current and historical data and then forecast future conditions of domestic and global economies and markets.