Broker Check
Napa Valley Wealth Management - St. Helena, CA


We’re in the 11th year of both our economic expansion and equity-market bull run. In such mature cycles, we can expect deceleration and volatility. Navigating these aging environments—to reduce risk and pursue target returns— is a primary focus as we manage our portfolios. 

After an in-depth analysis of historical and current data at our latest Investment Policy Committee meeting, we believe the fundamental economic and market indicators signal that both cycles will continue through 2019. Yes, growth and performance will likely be slower and more volatile, but there’s no fundamental reason to believe a recession or a bear market are imminent. 

Our Economic, Market & Allocation publication is a key analytical tool we use to identify market opportunities, minimize exposure to risk, and reduce portfolio volatility.


This quarter's analysis takes a deep dive into:

  • Our Outlook for Bonds and Equities: With falling rates and an 11-year-old bull run, what is the outlook for the markets for 2019's remainder? Our analysis by asset class can be found on pages 2-3.
  • The Yield Curve Inversion: Since the 1960s, inversions have foreshadowed a recession. Read our analysis on page 1.
  • Possibly a Mild Next Recession: It's possible we could wind down this economic cycle and never see any inflation. If so, the next recession would likely be quite mild. Page 1.
  • Economic Slowdown? Worldwide economies are slowing, but we haven’t turned recessionary. Read page 4.

We invite the opportunity to discuss our strategies in relation to your specific portfolio and investment strategy. Feel welcome to reach out or schedule a complimentary portfolio consultation at any time. 

Please fill out the form below to receive a PDF download of our August six-page analysis. 

These forward-looking forecasts are an integral part of our tactical investment process. Instead of using a buy-and-hold strategy, we understand that risk changes over time, and we make ongoing, tactical changes to our portfolios to consistently move away from risk and toward opportunities.These changes are based in large part on the forecasts enclosed, which are generated from our continual monitoring of current and historical data and our forecast of future economic and market conditions.